The last two teams in the field are in by default until I determine that they are basically mathematically eliminated which could happen over the next week. Houston moves up to a 2 in this update while LSU moves to a 3. I couldn’t decide between LSU/Nevada for the final 3 seed so I went with the resume. The committee would probably argue otherwise but that’s the direction I’m going at this point.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

East

1 Duke
16 Quinnipiac/Norfolk St

8 Wofford
9 Baylor

5 Maryland
12 VCU

4 Villanova
13 Yale

6 Florida St
11 Minnesota/Temple

3 LSU
14 N Kentucky

7 Buffalo
10 St John’s

2 Houston
15 Texas St

West

1 Gonzaga
16 Bucknell

8 Washington
9 Texas

5 Louisville
12 Indiana/Oklahoma

4 Nevada
13 Hofstra

6 Iowa St
11 Alabama

3 North Carolina
14 Old Dominion

7 Mississippi St
10 Seton Hall

2 Michigan St
15 Loyola Chicago

South

1 Virginia
16 Prairie View/St Francis PA

8 Ole Miss
9 Ohio St

5 Wisconsin
12 New Mexico St

4 Texas Tech
13 Belmont

6 Iowa
11 Clemson

3 Kansas
14 S Dakota St

7 Cincinnati
10 Syracuse

2 Kentucky
15 Montana

Midwest

1 Tennessee
16 Sam Houston

8 TCU
9 NC State

5 Kansas St
12 Lipscomb

4 Purdue
13 Vermont

6 Virginia Tech
11 Utah St

3 Marquette
14 UC Irvine

7 Auburn
10 UCF

2 Michigan
15 Radford

Everything that I’m about to type comes down to the actual match ups so I’ll do this again once the field of 68 is set and make predictions on how things will unfold. My insights come from looking statistically at past tournament teams and how they performed in the tournament. I’m going to list the most dangerous first, followed by the most likely to under perform. I’m using the average seeds from bracketmatrix.com as a gauge. Keep in mind that “dangerous” and under performing” are relative to the seed each team gets. I’m not listing any 1 seeds as dangerous because, duh, they’re 1 seeds. However, a 1 seed is on the under preform list. Also, some teams listed may not make the tournament at all as they are bubble teams or they would likely need to win their conference tournament to qualify.

Most Dangerous

Michigan St
North Carolina
Purdue
Houston
Marquette
Louisville
Nevada
Iowa St
Villanova
Virginia Tech
Auburn
Buffalo
Texas
Wofford
Lipscomb
Belmont
Davidson
NMSU
Hofstra
S Dakota St
Old Dominion
Florida
Furman
Toledo

Most Likely To Under Perform

Tennessee
Kansas
LSU
Texas Tech
Kansas St
Florida St
Cincinnati
Syracuse
Oklahoma
Clemson
Minnesota (Worst at large team per my projections)
Arizona St
Indiana
UCF
Seton Hall
Yale
UC Irvine
Loyola Chicago

Today I decided to use my “eye test”, at least statistically and historically speaking, when selecting the last few teams in the field and also for seeding purposes. There are teams in the 4-6 seed range that could really go on any one of the 3 seed lines. So if you see X team higher than you think they should be or Y team lower than what you think then you’re probably right in some sense. These updates, especially mid week, are going to be more fluid than the Monday update. So please keep that in mind. Drop a comment below if you have a question about a specific team or seed.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

East

1 Duke
16 Prairie View/Qunnipiac

8 TCU
9 Lipscomb

5 Wisconsin
12 New MExico St

4 LSU
13 Murray St

6 Mississippi St
11 Minnesota

3 Nevada
14 N Kentucky

7 Buffalo
10 Clemson

2 Kansas
15 Montana

1 Gonzaga
16 Bucknell

8 Washington
9 Syracuse

5 Villanova
12 Utah St/Arizona St

4 Purdue
13 Hofstra

6 Iowa St
11 Alabama

3 North Carolina
14 Old Dominion

7 Cincinnati
10 Baylor

2 Michigan St
15 Radford

South

1 Virginia
16 Fairleigh Dickinson/Norfolk St

8 Ole Miss
9 St John’s

5 Kansas St
12 VCU

4 Maryland
13 Yale

6 Iowa
11 UCF

3 Marquette
14 Loyola Chicago

7 Florida St
10 Texas

2 Kentucky
15 Texas St

Midwest

1 Tennessee
16 Sam Houston St

8 Ohio St
9 Wofford

5 Louisville
12 Indiana/Belmont

4 Texas Tech
13 Vermont

6 Virginia Tech
11 Seton Hall

3 Houston
14 S Dakota St

7 Auburn
10 NC State

2 Michigan
15 UC Irvine

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

East

1 Duke
16 Prairie View/Norfolk St

8 TCU
9 Lipscomb

5 Iowa
12 Belmont/Butler

4 LSU
13 Murray St

6 Florida St
11 Alabama

3 Marquette
14 Loyola Chicago

7 Buffalo
10 Syracuse

2 Michigan St
15 Montana

West

1 Gonzaga
16 Bucknell

8 Washington
9 Texas

5 Iowa St
12 VCU

4 Nevada
13 Hofstra

6 Maryland
11 Oklahoma

3 Kansas
14 S Dakota St

7 Cincinnati
10 NC State

2 Kentucky
15 Texas St

South

1 Virginia
16 Sam Houston

8 Ole Miss
9 Baylor

5 Wisconsin
12 UCF/Arizona St

4 Texas Tech
13 Yale

6 Virginia Tech
11 Seton Hall

3 Houston
14 Old Dominion

7 Auburn
10 St John’s

2 Michigan
15 UC Irvine

Midwest

1 Tennessee
16 Fairleigh Dickinson/Canisius

8 Ohio St
9 Wofford

5 Villanova
12 New Mexico St

4 Louisville
13 Vermont

6 Kansas St
11 Clemson

3 Purdue
14 N Kentucky

7 Mississippi St
10 Minnesota

2 North Carolina
15 Radford

Well, I had to make some concessions today because of losses to teams on the 3-5 seed line. Not happy about it but it is what it is. Also, I have Michigan and Gonzaga neck and neck for the final 1 spot. Gonzaga wins the spot for now BUT if Michigan wins both games next week then I’m putting them back on the 1 line. I’m giving Oklahoma one last chance before I toss them from the field completely and a couple of new mid major teams join the last 4 in club.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

East

1 Duke
16 Prairie View/Robert Morris

8 TCU
9 Wofford

5 Louisville
12 VCU

4 Maryland
13 Yale

6 Kansas St
11 Minnesota

3 Marquette
14 N Kentucky

7 Mississippi St
10 Syracuse

2 Michigan St
15 Montana

West

1 Gonzaga
16 Bucknell

8 Washington
9 Ole Miss

5 Iowa St
12 UNCG/Belmont

4 Nevada
13 Murray St

6 Iowa
11 Clemson

3 Kansas
14 S Dakota St

7 Buffalo
10 Alabama

2 Michigan
15 UC Irvine

South

1 Virginia
16 Sam Houston

8 Texas
9 St John’s

5 Wisconsin
12 New Mexico St

4 LSU
13 Hofstra

6 Virginia Tech
11 Oklahoma

3 Purdue
14 Loyola Chicago

7 Cincinnati
10 NC State

2 Kentucky
15 Texas St

Midwest

1 Tennessee
16 Norfolk St/Rider

8 Ohio St
9 Lipscomb

5 Villanova
12 Indiana/Butler

4 Texas Tech
13 Vermont

6 Florida St
11 Seton Hall

3 Houston
14 Old Dominion

7 Auburn
10 Baylor

2 North Carolina
15 Radford

This will be the last update until Monday. There aren’t really any games of significance tonight and I’ll be traveling to a basketball game on Sunday. It will be interesting to see the committees top 16 tomorrow. I would imagine they will have a Nevada as a top 4 seed whereas I don’t and possibly Gonzaga as a 1 over Michigan. Seeds 3-5 are kind of a mosh pit of teams right now so I’m most interested in their 9-16 teams more than anything.

A couple of new teams joined the bracket tonight because the other bubble teams keep doing what bubble teams do. Arkansas was the first team out and their next two games are very winnable. It’s likely they make an entrance next week at some point the way things are going. UNCG and VCU were also considered but there are certain metrics that prohibit me from including them in the fields as at large teams. I’ll write about the specifics in the upcoming days.

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

East

1 Duke
16 Prairie View/Robert Morris

8 Ohio St
9 Texas

5 LSU
12 Davidson

4 Marquette
13 Belmont

6 Kansas St
11 Temple

3 Purdue
14 Loyola Chicago

7 Cincinnati
10 Syracuse

2 Kentucky
15 Texas St

West

1 Michigan
16 Bucknell

8 Buffalo
9 Wofford

5 Villanova
12 Florida/Clemson

4 Iowa St
13 Vermont

6 Iowa
11 Alabama

3 Kansas
14 S Dakota St

7 Washington
10 Minnesota

2 Gonzaga
15 UC Irvine

South

1 Virginia
16 Sam Houston/Norfolk St

8 St John’s
9 Baylor

5 Maryland
12 New Mexico St

4 Virginia Tech
13 Old Dominion

6 Nevada
11 Utah St

3 Houston
14 N Kentucky

7 Florida St
10 Ole Miss

2 Michigan St
15 Princeton

Midwest

1 Tennessee
16 Rider

8 Oklahoma
9 Lipscomb

5 Texas Tech
12 Indiana/Creighton

4 Louisville
13 Hofstra

6 Mississippi St
11 NC State

3 Wisconsin
14 Montana

7 Auburn
10 TCU

2 North Carolina
15 Radford

http://www.bracketmatrix.com

East

1 Duke
16 Prairie View/Norfolk St

8 Buffalo
9 Texas

5 Maryland
12 Arizona St/Temple

4 Marquette
13 Hofstra

6 Kansas St
11 NC State

3 Purdue
14 N Kentucky

7 Cincinnati
10 Syracuse

2 Kentucky
15 Georgia St

West

1 Michigan
16 Bucknell

8 St John’s
9 Baylor

5 LSU
12 Davidson

4 Iowa St
13 Vermont

6 Nevada
11 Minnesota

3 Kansas
14 S Dakota St

7 Auburn
10 Indiana

2 North Carolina
15 Radford

South

1 Virginia
16 Sam Houston/Robert Morris

8 Ohio St
9 Wofford

5 Texas Tech
12 Seton Hall/UCF

4 Louisville
13 New Mexico St

6 Iowa
11 Alabama

3 Houston
14 Loyola Chicago

7 Washington
10 Ole Miss

2 Gonzaga
15 UC Irvine

Midwest

1 Tennessee
16 Rider

8 Oklahoma
9 Lipscomb

5 Villanova
12 Belmont

4 Virginia Tech
13 Old Dominion

6 Mississippi St
11 Utah St

3 Wisconsin
14 Montana

7 Florida St
10 TCU

2 Michigan St
15 Princeton

First 4 Out

Clemson
Arkansas
UNCG
San Francisco

Next 4 Out

Belmont
Butler
Creighton
Florida